The Fire Horse Rides: China's 2026 Acceleration
The Fire Horse Rides: China's 2026 Acceleration
The West is in terminal decline. China has spent two decades building the alternative. The Fire Horse year of 2026 is when they speed up.
In the Chinese zodiac, the Fire Horse occurs once every 60 years. It represents speed, intensity, and transformation. Forces that cannot be contained once released. The last Fire Horse year was 1966: the Chinese Cultural Revolution.
Now we're witnessing another major shift. The center of global economic power is moving from West to East.
The Epstein revelations and the dollar's structural weakness are connected. Both expose the same thing: a system that has lost the internal cohesion needed to maintain external power. When elites become openly predatory and the currency loses its grip simultaneously, you're not looking at separate problems. You're looking at a system in terminal phase.
Act I: The Empire Exhausted
The Dollar's 17% Collapse
The U.S. Dollar Index tells the story in a single chart.
| Period | DXY Level | What Happened |
|---|---|---|
| September 2022 | 114.0 | 20-year peak |
| January 2025 | 103.5 | Post-election optimism fades |
| January 2026 | 95.5 | 4-year low, key support breaks |
| Q2 2026 (forecast) | 94.0 | Morgan Stanley projection |
From peak to bottom: 17% down. And still falling.
Here's what makes this collapse remarkable: it's happening despite high interest rates and quantitative tightening (QT). Historically, when the Fed raises rates and reduces its balance sheet, the dollar gets stronger. Foreign money chases higher returns. That's not happening now.
What happens when the Fed has to cut rates and restart money printing (QE), if the dollar can't hold its value with rates at 5%?
The forces driving this are not temporary. They reinforce each other:
- The Fed is moving toward rate cuts as the economy weakens
- Central banks are moving out of dollars
- Capital reallocates to emerging markets and euros
- Confidence in US fiscal sustainability is eroding
Moral Rot as Leading Indicator
Here's a pattern historians recognize but economists ignore: moral collapse precedes economic collapse.
In late Rome, the elites grabbed everything while roads and aqueducts fell apart. In pre-revolutionary France, aristocrats lived in luxury while ordinary people starved. In both cases, the corruption became visible years before the economy actually collapsed.
The Epstein case is usually dismissed as celebrity gossip. That misses the point.
A convicted predator had access to the highest levels of finance, politics, and academia for decades. The revelations showed an entire system: elites who believed they were above the law, institutions that protected them, deep corruption at the top of Western society.
When the powerful can traffic children without punishment for years, it signals a system in terminal decline. Wealth inequality in the US has returned to 1920s levels, when a tiny elite controlled most of the wealth. Trust in institutions has collapsed. The social contract is breaking apart.
Societies that accept predatory elites cannot maintain the trust needed for economic cooperation. The connection between moral collapse and economic decline is not a coincidence. One causes the other.
When Empires Shrink: From Iraq to Greenland
Emmanuel Todd, the French researcher who predicted the Soviet collapse, describes Trump's foreign policy as "micro-theaters of operation." Greenland. Venezuela. Small targets that show ambition without requiring real commitment.
Compare this to the Iraq War era:
| Metric | Iraq War (2003-2011) | Now (2025-2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Major theaters | Afghanistan + Iraq | None |
| Peak troops | 170,300 in Iraq alone | ~2,000 in Iraq |
| Total cost | $815 billion | Fraction of that |
| Ambition | Regional transformation | Territorial nibbling |
The pattern is clear: as American power declines, the scale of its military actions shrinks.
When empires can no longer afford real wars, they turn to theater. Buy Greenland. Threaten Venezuela. Create the appearance of strength while hiding weakness.
This is an empire that has exhausted itself. It can no longer use power where it matters, so it performs power where it doesn't.
The Vassals Break Free
For decades, European foreign policy meant following America. NATO wasn't just a military alliance. It was an ideological commitment to American-led hegemony.
That consensus is fracturing.
On January 27, 2026, after 20 years of failed negotiations, the EU and India signed "the mother of all deals":
| Metric | Scale |
|---|---|
| Combined population | 2 billion |
| Combined GDP | $27 trillion |
| Share of global GDP | 25% |
The timing wasn't coincidental. The deal closed weeks after Trump's tariff escalations. European Commission President von der Leyen explicitly framed it as a response to American trade aggression.
Reuters: "A series designed to offset the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs."
Europe didn't stop believing in America. It stopped believing America would protect European interests.
The vassals are breaking free.
Act II: The Dollar System Unravels
How the Dollar Mainframe Worked
For fifty years, the dollar functioned like a centralized hub. Every transaction, every trade settlement, every reserve allocation routed through New York.
Countries held dollars not because they wanted to, but because the system required it. A Chinese company buying Indonesian goods needed dollars, even though neither side wanted them. This created artificial, constant demand.
Then came 1997.
The Asian financial crisis showed how vulnerable countries were. Countries without enough dollar reserves were destroyed when the carry trade unwound. Money fled. Currencies crashed. The IMF demanded painful spending cuts as the price of emergency loans.
The lesson was clear: never again.
Asian central banks started collecting dollars aggressively. By the 2020s, emerging markets held about $5 trillion in extra reserves, far more than needed for normal trade. This was insurance against future attacks on their currencies.
But insurance has costs. Every billion sitting in low-return American bonds was a billion not invested in local roads, schools, or factories.
For decades, this was an acceptable trade-off. The dollar system worked. Countries paid the insurance premium and got stability in return.
Then Washington made a critical mistake: it started using the dollar as an instrument of control.
The Weaponization Mistake
The dollar's structural advantage came with a dangerous flaw: it could be used as a weapon. Washington couldn't resist using it.
2014: BNP Paribas The US fined BNP Paribas $9 billion for transactions with Sudan, Cuba, and Iran. These were legal under French and EU law. But because they cleared through New York, American law applied.
2014: Alstom A French company allegedly paid bribes in Indonesia. The US arrested Alstom's executives, not because American law was broken, but because the transactions used dollars. Result: Alstom sold its power division to General Electric. Extraterritorial jurisdiction transferred a French strategic asset to an American competitor.
2022: Russian Reserves The US and allies froze $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves.
if you can take my money, it was never really mine.
Transactions use the dollar system, and are therfore under American law. Your contracts, executives, and companies are all vulnerable to how Washington interprets the rules.
Moving away from the dollar became unavoidable. Not because countries hate the dollar. Because they can't accept a system where their independence depends on American prosecutors.
The Swap Revolution
The revolution came quietly: bilateral central bank swap agreements.
Instead of routing through New York, two central banks lend each other domestic currency. China-Indonesia: the PBOC lends 30 billion yuan to Bank Indonesia. Bank Indonesia lends equivalent rupiah to PBOC. Now Indonesian importers pay Chinese suppliers in yuan. Chinese buyers pay Indonesian exporters in rupiah.
No dollars required.
| Swap Agreement | Size | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| China-Indonesia | 30B yuan | Direct bilateral settlement |
| China-Saudi Arabia | 50B yuan (Nov 2023) | Energy de-dollarization |
| China-Argentina | 130B yuan | Emergency reserves + trade |
| BRICS Contingent Reserve | $100B+ | IMF alternative |
The $5 Trillion Liberation
The swap networks provide liquidity insurance. The $5 trillion in "excess" reserves that Asian central banks accumulated after 1997 is no longer needed.
That capital is now available for domestic investment. Infrastructure. Industrial policy. Development banks.
The New Settlement Architecture
How does the emerging system handle imbalances? If China runs a surplus with Indonesia, how does Indonesia settle?
Flexibility:
- Gold: the ultimate neutral asset
- Foreign bonds: Treasuries, German bonds, whatever the creditor accepts
- Real assets: Indonesia sells ownership in coal mines to Chinese buyers
- Domestic bonds: Indonesian government debt, if China wants exposure
Messier than the dollar system. Requires direct negotiation rather than automatic processing. But more resilient. No single weak point. No powerful country can use the payment system as a weapon.
Less efficient, but antifragile. Fewer big wins. Fewer major crashes. For countries that lived through 1997, that trade-off is worth it.
Saudi Arabia's Quiet Pivot
The petrodollar (the 1973 agreement that oil would be priced in dollars) has been the foundation of dollar hegemony for fifty years.
That foundation is cracking.
June 2023: Saudi Arabia let its 50-year petrodollar agreement expire. No press conference. No emergency meetings. Just silence. The kind of silence that comes before major changes.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| June 2023 | Petrodollar expires without renewal |
| November 2023 | 50B yuan currency swap with China |
| September 2024 | Minister: Saudi "open to petroyuan" |
| October 2024 | Saudi joins Project mBridge (non-dollar settlements) |
Saudi Arabia's Industry Minister Bandar Al-khorayef stated it plainly: "Saudi Arabia will always try new things, and is open to new ideas."
The Neutral Currency Strategy
Saudi Arabia isn't replacing dollar dependence with yuan dependence. The strategy is smarter: use "neutral" currencies that can convert to both systems.
| Neutral Currency | Dollar Link | China Link | Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong dollar | Fixed to USD | Integrated with China | BRICS settlements |
| UAE dirham | Fixed to USD | BRICS member | Middle East trade |
| Singapore dollar | Managed exchange rate | Major trading partner | ASEAN settlements |
When the world's largest oil exporter protects itself against dollar hegemony, the direction is clear.
America's Allies Flee the Dollar
The most dramatic signals come not from adversaries, but from America's closest allies.
Taiwan: The May 2025 Shock
Something unprecedented: the Taiwan dollar surged 8% against USD in two days, the steepest rise since 1988. On May 2nd alone, the TWD gained 3.8%, the largest single-day jump on record.
| Period | Movement |
|---|---|
| May 2-5, 2025 | -8% (32.10 → 29.40) |
| July 1, 2025 | TWD hits 29.16, +12% YTD |
| Full Year 2025 | Best performer in Asia |
The trigger wasn't government policy. Market participants fled the dollar. Reuters reported traders "complaining of no buyers for U.S. dollars that insurers, exporters and investors suddenly wanted to sell."
Taiwan's life insurers (sitting on $200 billion in USD assets, about 25% of GDP) started selling.
The timing added fuel to speculation. The currency move happened right after U.S.-Taiwan trade negotiations, leading some to believe a behind-the-scenes deal had been struck to weaken the dollar. Officials denied it. Markets weren't convinced.
When America's closest security partner sells dollars in large amounts, the message is clear.
Japan: The Carry Trade Ends
For decades, Japan's near-zero interest rates created the "carry trade": borrow yen cheaply, invest in dollar assets for higher returns. This created permanent demand for dollars.
That era is ending.
| BOJ Rate | Date | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00% → 0.25% | July 2024 | First hike in 17 years |
| 0.25% → 0.50% | January 2025 | Highest since 2008 |
| 0.50% → 0.75% | December 2025 | Normalization continues |
After 43 consecutive months of inflation above 2% and wage growth at its fastest pace in three decades, the BOJ has no choice but to normalize.
When Japan raised rates in August 2024, the Nikkei fell 12% in a single day, the S&P 500 dropped 3%. These tremors will intensify as the $261 billion carry trade unwinds.
The yen is strengthening. Dollar demand from the world's fifth-largest economy is shrinking. One of the primary mechanisms recycling Japanese savings into dollars is reversing.
Act III: China's Preparation
While Western elites were distracted by scandals and problems, China quietly executed a systematic strategy: buying gold at a pace not seen since World War II, while selling US Treasuries.
The Treasury Exodus
| Metric | Peak | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China's Treasury holdings | $1,300B (2011) | ~$700-750B | -45% |
| Dollar share of global reserves | 70% (2000) | ~40% | Structural decline |
The selling accelerated after the US froze Russian reserves in 2022, which helped central banks around the world realize that dollar assets could be seized at any moment.
The Gold Buildup
| Year | Official Reserves | Events |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ~2,010 tonnes | Resumed reporting after 3-year pause |
| 2023 | ~2,215 tonnes | Central banks buy record 1,037 tonnes |
| 2024 | ~2,264 tonnes | New record: 1,045 tonnes |
| Q4 2025 | 2,306 tonnes | All-time high; +15 tonnes in September alone |
Official figures likely understate reality. Some institutional analysts believe China's actual holdings exceed 5,000 tonnes, far above reported numbers. Gold is accumulated through state companies, investment funds, and domestic mining that never appears in official reports.
The $18,000 Question
What gold price would cover US external debts? Roughly $18,000 per ounce, about 6 times current levels.
This isn't a price prediction. It's a measure of how cheap gold still is compared to dollar debts, and how seriously China is preparing for a world after dollar dominance.
Silver's Chinese Premium
An interesting fact: silver sells at a significant premium in Chinese markets. In early 2025, Shanghai silver cost the equivalent of $123/oz while London prices were around $109/oz, a 13% premium.
This reflects China's long history with silver. China used a silver money system for centuries. The premium suggests Chinese buyers are collecting silver alongside gold. This signals deep worry about money that goes beyond just central bank decisions to ordinary people.
Gold accumulation serves three strategic functions:
- Hedge against dollar devaluation and US fiscal deterioration
- Signal to other central banks that de-dollarization is viable
- Foundation for alternative reserve systems (BRICS settlements, bilateral agreements)
The Invisible Serpent
A strange pattern in Asian currency markets: since 2015, all Asian currencies move together with unusual coordination. Before that? Wild swings.
No treaty was signed. No official statement was made. Yet the big movements between Asian currencies have disappeared.
Yuan-Yen Coordination
The key relationship is between China and Japan. If the yuan rises (and it is rising), Japan faces a choice:
- Stay separate: keep the yen weak, risk being left out of the new Asian order
- Coordinate quietly: let the yen rise along with the yuan, join the new system
Option 2 is more likely. Japan cannot afford to be left out as Asia organizes around China.
What would coordination look like? Not formal agreements. Quiet conversations. Unspoken understandings. Currencies that happen to move together.
Trump's Need
Here's the irony: this coordination may be exactly what Donald Trump needs.
If the United States wants to rebuild its factories, it needs Asian currencies to rise in value. A yen that's 35-40% too cheap makes Japanese products impossible to compete with. A controlled yuan keeps Chinese factories dominant.
The Mar-a-Lago Accord rumors may be closer to reality than markets think. Trump needs what Asia is quietly preparing: a coordinated rise in Asian currencies against the dollar.
In 1985, the US organized the Plaza Accord: a public agreement where Japan, Germany, France, and the UK agreed to weaken the dollar to help American exports. It worked. The dollar fell 50% against the yen over two years.
If something similar happens in 2026, it won't be announced. There will be no signed agreement. Central banks will simply act in coordination, and currencies will move. The result will be the same: a weaker dollar, stronger Asian currencies, and a rebalancing of global trade.
Civilizational Gravity
There's a deeper reason why Asia is returning to China as its center: Western individualism never really took hold in East Asian societies.
These are:
- Ethnically and culturally similar societies
- Group-focused rather than individual-focused
- Built on Confucian civilizational substrate (respect for hierarchy, social harmony, education, merit)
- Not oriented toward individual achievement
Western liberal ideas were always just a surface layer in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The American economic model was adopted as policy, but never became part of the culture. Under the appearance of democracy and free markets, the Confucian foundation stayed.
What we're seeing isn't the reversal of Westernization. It's the return of a cultural pattern that was never really replaced. The Chinese cultural world, with thousands of years of continuous history, simply lasted longer than the American era.
As America loses power, Western influence is fading. Asia is returning to its natural state, reconnecting with China's economy and culture.
This isn't conquest. It's gravity.
Act IV: The Fire Horse Acceleration
Why 2026
China spent two decades building the alternative infrastructure:
- Swap agreements with major trading partners
- Gold reserves for a post-dollar system
- Belt and Road creating physical dependencies
- Tacit currency coordination with neighbors
- BRICS expansion as institutional alternative
The pieces are in place. 2026 is when they accelerate.
Every signal converges:
| Domain | Signal |
|---|---|
| Monetary | DXY down 17% from peak |
| Moral | Elite corruption visible |
| Military | Retreat to nano-theaters |
| Diplomatic | Vassals defecting |
| Financial | Taiwan/Japan dollar exodus |
| Energy | Saudi petroyuan exploration |
| Reserves | Gold up, Treasuries down |
| Cultural | Confucian reversion |
The Japan Paradox: Why the Doom Narrative Is Wrong
Western analysts love predicting Japan's collapse. The debt! The aging population! The deflation!
They're giving false alarms.
The Fundamentals
| Metric | Reality | Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (7-year average) | 2.28%, higher than Germany | "Japan is stagnating" |
| Current account surplus | Projected 6% of GDP | "Japan will default" |
| Corporate profits | All-time highs | "Companies are dying" |
| Primary budget deficit | 0.7% of GDP | "Fiscal disaster" (France: 5%) |
The weak yen has been helpful, not harmful. Japanese company profits move 83% in line with the currency. When the yen falls, exporters do well, stocks rise, and tax income increases.
The Debt That Nobody Mentions
Japan's debt compared to GDP scares Western analysts. What they miss:
- 95% of Japanese debt is owned inside Japan, not by foreigners who might panic
- 50% is owned by the Bank of Japan itself, so one part of the government owes money to another part
- The aging population actually helps: as elderly bondholders die, inheritance taxes return wealth to the government
Compare to France, where 60% of government debt is owned by foreigners. Which country has a control problem?
The Yen is Antifragile
When global markets crash, the yen rises.
Why? Japanese investors own the largest foreign investment position in the world. Income from these assets has grown from 8 trillion yen (2004) to 41 trillion yen today. When crisis hits, Japanese savers stop investing abroad and bring money home.
The yen gets stronger exactly when everything else is falling. An antifragile asset.
The Purchasing Power Gap
The yen is currently 35-40% too cheap against the euro based on what things actually cost. A gap this big between two major export countries has never happened before.
Either the gap closes (yen rises), or German industry collapses. There's no third option.
| Metric | Current Level | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Yen vs Euro (real value) | 35-40% too cheap | Cannot last |
| Japanese 10-year bonds | 2.3-2.4% return | Better than Europe |
| Japanese 30-year bonds | 3.5% return | Good returns plus currency gains coming |
The investment idea: buy Japanese bonds in a currency trading at half its real value. When the yen returns to normal, your returns double.
The Coming Asian Boom
Here's what Western analysts miss: this isn't about decline. It's about reallocation.
The $5 Trillion Bonus
The extra reserves Asian central banks built after 1997 (the $5 trillion safety fund) can now be used productively. For two decades, Asian savings went into US government bonds. Every billion in low-return American bonds was a billion not spent on local roads and bridges.
The swap networks change everything. Countries no longer need dollar reserves for protection. Direct currency agreements provide the same safety without the wasted opportunity.
Reading the Metals
Gold rising alone means fear. People running to safety.
Gold rising with copper and silver means something different. Copper is the metal of factories and construction. Silver is used for both.
In 2025-2026, all three are rising together. This isn't fear. The market is pricing in a building boom.
| Pattern | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Gold alone rising | Fear |
| Gold + Copper + Silver rising | Building activity plus money concerns |
| Current (2025-2026) | Growth signal |
Damage to Western Bonds
If Asian central banks don't need to hold dollars, who buys US government bonds?
Higher long-term interest rates in the West. Tighter government budgets. Less room for spending. The era of cheap Western borrowing is ending.
Money that went to New York will go to Asian roads, bridges, factories, and power plants.
Stability Instead of Efficiency
The new system will be less efficient but more stable.
The dollar system was elegant. One reserve currency, automatic processing, smooth global trade. But elegant systems are fragile. When the dollar tightens, the whole world feels it. When Washington uses payments as a weapon, everyone is exposed.
The swap-based system is messier. Direct negotiations between countries. Multiple currencies for payments. Gold to balance things out. Less efficient, but that's the price of being harder to break.
Expect steady growth rather than boom-and-crash cycles. The spectacular carry trade returns are over. So are the spectacular crashes. Asian savings will grow locally rather than flowing through New York.
The coming boom will be boring. And boring, in finance, is usually profitable.
The Talent Exodus
When times get hard, people move to where opportunities are better. This isn't ideology. It's people showing what they really think through their actions.
Europe's Brain Drain
Across Europe, the pattern is clear: rich people leaving France and the UK, young graduates looking at Dubai or Asia, skilled workers asking if their country still works for them.
The American Exception
The United States still has something Europe lacks: a culture where talent can rise.
You could be 25, look unconventional, and have a special skill. If you're good enough, you can find resources and start a company.
This matters: the "Western decline" story needs more detail. Europe and America aren't falling at the same speed. The US still has advantages (startup culture, investment money, tech innovation) that Europe has weakened through too many rules and focus on credentials.
Decentralization as Safety Valve
Another American advantage: states compete. When California becomes bad for business, companies move to Texas. When one state tries bad policy, people move away.
Switzerland works the same way. Its 26 regions compete for residents.
This spread of power stops pressure from building up to dangerous levels. Remember the 1930s: four major democracies turned to dictatorships (Italy, Germany, Spain, Japan). Centralized systems tend toward extreme solutions.
Systems spread across many centers can experiment, fail locally, and adjust. This is why the US may decline more slowly than Europe.
The Unknown Factors
Two forces could change all predictions:
Technology Speeds Up
| Technology | Time to Reach Mass Use |
|---|---|
| Telephone | 50 years |
| Television | 25 years |
| Internet | 7 years |
| ChatGPT | 2 months |
A 2025 breakthrough could reshape global power by 2030. The winner of the tech competition may win everything.
China has numbers. More science and engineering graduates than the US and Europe combined. A culture focused on education and group achievement. A government directing resources toward key technologies.
The US keeps its startup culture, investment money, and (for now) AI leadership. Tesla's Optimus robot program (targeting 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025) represents one bet on American tech leadership.
But tech cycles now move faster than political cycles. A breakthrough or failure could shift the balance within years, not decades.
The Dictatorship Question
Dictatorships can coordinate amazingly well. They build high-speed rail and carry out industrial plans in ways democracies cannot match.
But they lack the ability to fix their own mistakes.
Yves Chouefati's research on long-term investment returns suggests investing in dictatorships doesn't pay over the long term. They can act fast, but they can't correct themselves.
The shared fear of destruction (the same thing that prevented US-Soviet nuclear war) may prevent direct US-China conflict. The most likely outcome is gradual change rather than war.
Fire Horse marks Asia's rise, but not necessarily its permanent victory. Whether China's centralized system can maintain success over decades is still an open question.
The AI Unknown
There's one force that could change everything: artificial intelligence.
Nearly every species has appeared and then disappeared. One reason: their strengths are not always helpful in new situations.
The real question isn't what AI will do to the economy. We don't know. The question is whether humans can adjust to an intelligence developing alongside our own.
Throughout history, technology replaced physical work, pushing workers into thinking jobs. But AI threatens thinking jobs themselves. Where do displaced workers go next?
The answer might be something uniquely human: helping each other, mutual benefit, building relationships where both sides win. If I help you and it makes a difference, and you do the same, that's valuable. But if we don't do that, human nature becomes the limit.
Some societies will adjust. Others will fall into the conflicts that declining powers historically face.
Conclusion: Reallocation, Not Crisis
The Western habit is to call this a "crisis," suggesting a temporary problem before things go back to normal.
That view misses everything.
This is structural reallocation: the largest redirection of capital flows in modern history:
- $5 trillion freed for domestic investment
- Savings moving from US bonds to Asian infrastructure
- Money that built American suburbs now building Chinese railways
This isn't decline. It's a boom. Just not in the West.
The swap revolution removed the requirement forcing emerging markets to collect dollar reserves. When gold rises with copper and silver, the market is pricing in real growth, not just fear.
The damage will be to Western bond markets. Higher long-term interest rates. Less government spending room. The end of assuming that foreign central banks will always buy US bonds.
The DXY collapse. The Epstein revelations. Taiwan's currency shock. Saudi's turn toward Asia. Japan's carry trade ending. The EU-India deal.
Not separate crises. Signs of the same reality: the American era is over, and Asia is returning to its historical pattern with China at the center.
The Fire Horse year of 2026 marks the turning point. The change was already happening; now it's visible and cannot be reversed.
The fire is burning. In Asia, it's the fire of building, not destruction.
Somewhere in the flames, a new world order takes shape. One we can only begin to see.
Sources:
- Morgan Stanley 2026 Investment Strategy Outlook
- Federal Reserve FRED data (DXY, DTWEXBGS)
- Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg
- World Gold Council central bank data
- US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data
- European Policy Centre analysis
Disclaimer: This analysis represents geopolitical and economic interpretation of publicly available data. It is not investment advice.